https://nitter.poast.org/vonClownsewitz/status/1837056480186393006#mayden
@squatsons
Sep 18
I said that the blast in Russia wasn’t a nuke…
He said in his post “no one panic”
Ya no one was “panicking” until he convinces gullible people on X that it was a fucking nuke….
Rude or thin skinned?
Lieutenant Plebbit 🇺🇸🇷🇺
@endgame1489
Sep 19
He is somewhat of an expert on this, being a nuclear physicist and all
ayden
@squatsons
Sep 19
He thought Beirut was a nuclear blast my guy
Lieutenant Plebbit 🇺🇸🇷🇺
@endgame1489
Sep 19
It very well might have been, it's not unreasonable to think that and it can't be totally ruled out
Von Clownsewitz's War College
@vonClownsewitz
Sep 19
Except that with no evidence of radiation consistent with a nuclear blast, there's zero reason to entertain the argument.
I've said this many times, the radiation is your smoking gun, nothing else.
GR11_M43
@griimae
Sep 19
How likely several tons of explosives/fuel separated with casing explode all at the same time heating up the matter enough to form a mushroom consistent with 5–10Kt of TNT nuke? What is the mechanism?
Von Clownsewitz's War College
@vonClownsewitz
Sep 19
Consider that the Academy of Sciences of Moldova determined that an explosion of the munitions stored at the Cobasna ammunition depot in Pridnesdrovia would be equivalent to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (dw.com/en/transnistrias-expl…).
Consider now, that the Cobasna depot is the largest Soviet depot outside Russia, but in Soviet times would have been a forward position -- thinking strategically, you'd get larger and larger depots as you get deeper into the heartland as it's farther away from potential conflict and harder to hit. It stands to reason that there would be far larger depots within Russia itself.
I think the disconnect comes from conventional single explosive devices not being made at that scale, combined with a dramatic underestimation of how massive Russia's stockpiles are, or just how much explosives are stored in these massive depots.
Pack enough explosives in a confined space and set it off, and you get a big-ass bang, any explosion or release of energy at sufficient scale will cause a mushroom cloud.
Now, let's take the claim of "a mushroom consistent with 5–10Kt of TNT nuke" this hinges on the assumption that this explosion is caused solely by the impacting warhead and not the contents of the target. What happened to the energy released by all those stored weapons systems going off? Does it just disappear into the ether?
And that's the other thing, so much effort is spent on the characteristics of the explosion but it doesn't account for the lack of what would be the "smoking gun".
If we're working by process of elimination, a nuclear strike is the first thing we eliminate because there's no evidence of radiation consistent with a 5-10kt nuclear blast. So we can slip the question back to you, how likely is it that a 5-10kt nuclear explosion went off, and there's no evidence of any radiation consistent with such an explosion?
The answer is zero. Even a hypothetical 100% efficient nuclear warhead would still emit radiation. Both fission and fusion reactions inherently release radiation. In fission, we're talking about the release of neutrons, gamma rays, and other particles, ie. ionizing radiation. In terms of fusion, we're talking about neutrons that can induce fission reactions in the weapon casing or atmosphere. Further, a nuclear explosion can irradiate non-nuclear materials due to neutron activation.
tl;dr if there's no radiation, there's no nuke.
So why then, conspiracy theories aside, is no one able to demonstrate the presence of radiation?
Von Clownsewitz's War College
@vonClownsewitz
Sep 19
@OliviaLivbert95 not gonna lie, I didn't think this subject of discussion would become a weekly occurrence.
dd4wd
@dd4wd1
Sep 20
The other part is that you have indeed higher radiation measured near Helsinki. Where the Wind was going.
Von Clownsewitz's War College
@vonClownsewitz
Sep 20
Prevailing winds in Helsinki are eastwards, while the prevailing winds in Tver region are east, south-east (meaning blowing into Russia) this time of year.
Those blue dots south of Kouvola that indicate higher radiation than other areas correspond to the Loviisa nuclear power plant.
You'll notice as well, in the detail view (click on the dots), the radiation levels are trending down, the opposite we'd expect if radiation was blowing into the area from Russia.
Also keep in mind that there are many sources of radiation that aren't strictly nuclear explosion related.
Von Clownsewitz's War College
@vonClownsewitz
Sep 20
Replying to @vonClownsewitz @dd4wd1 @griimae @endgame1489 @squatsons @OliviaLivbert95
Also, think of what you're suggesting. Russia just got nuked, Finland, a NATO member, is being irradiated, and not a word from anyone. Why?
Sep 20, 2024 · 9:09 AM UTC
Lieutenant Plebbit 🇺🇸🇷🇺
@endgame1489
Sep 20
Replying to @vonClownsewitz @dd4wd1 @griimae @squatsons @OliviaLivbert95
NATO is still testing Russia's red lines. Both sides are not eager to immediately start ww3 and launch all their nukes. It's a complicated geopolitical game with the world at stake. But what do I know, I'm just an anime pfp on twitter, that's my speculation
dd4wd
@dd4wd1
Sep 20
Replying to @vonClownsewitz @griimae @endgame1489 @squatsons @OliviaLivbert95
Ukraine said multiple times partially on official channels that they should use/aquirre nuclear weapons. Russians reported last year that they trying to develop them. Russias response is generally very slow as well.