Play the 12th game safely, knowing that it is a great favorite in quick and quick tremors. As Kasparov and Grischuk noted today, all other chess players exacerbate fast play / blitz, but Carlsen is the only one that actually improves.
In these circumstances, it is more sensible to move in terrain where you have the advantage, if you think strategically.
I would say that the problem is that most fans have been adapted to anticipate recreational, dramatic and daring movements in sports like those we see in very dramatic films.
But historically, if you consider a year or even look at the art of war of Sun Tzu, the strategists and generals who were considered the most those who could win in this way seemed easy, modest, no dramatic or large losses. Or the significant risks involved.
This is an excellent strategy for the battle in which the outcome is determined in advance. This is what Carlson did.
The disadvantage is that it costs 50,000 euros, since the distribution of money goes to 550/450 in the half-time interval of 600/400 if it is classically determined.
So he changed the potential loss of 200 thousand euros with a potential risk of safe loss of 50 thousand euros with a possible loss of 150 thousand euros with a better chance. Now this is where we can wonder about his decision to predict what the real possibilities are, but who knows whether he cares about money.