math probleme

Anoymous wanted dubs.

She posted checkem and did not get dubs yesterday.

She posted checkem today, what is the probability she gets dubs?

(Once again, I'm dropping my RedCream persona to discuss the math.)

Threads on this message board rarely reach three figures these days. Frequency distribution of just the latest 40 threads reveals 5% are 100 posts or more, and 95% are 99 posts or less. In fact, 80% are 23 posts or less, with 15% being between 24 and 47 posts. 40% outright are single-digits.

Basing probability on the two-digit space is:

p(Zero Dubs) + p(Simple Dubs) + p(Embedded Dubs) = 0 + 1/11 + 0 =~ 0.0909

Over the short term, this revised probability is much less fruitful.